The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o and K4o and lose.
I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled this without tilting?
> The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > and K4o and lose.
> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > this without tilting?
> Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
It happens to everyone I assume. When I get to the stage of even thinking about posting to here about it, I stop for the night and have a cold one. If I am feeling better the next day, I play again. I only learnt to do this over the last week or so, and I'm sure I'll get riled enough to go against my better judgement.
I'm running hot at a table full of idiots at the moment. They have the kind of image Id probably get at a 2.5-5 NLHE table. I have made notes on three of the players already. You tend to remember the bad ones. I am trying to keep the memory of the guy I just played calling my AsQs dollar 50 pre flop raise along with most of the table. I was MP checked to me with 2 spades and a Q on flop (not paired) I bet pot size, Called by two player. Third spade hits on turn, its Ks I have nut flush. I check next guy bets , next raises, I call, guy to my left folds. I guess this guy must have AK or AQ so I push the river which is an Ace He calls and is all in with A3 off. \o/
That's one to keep in an easily accessible bit of my memory next time i get a bad beat.
> The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > and K4o and lose.
> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > this without tilting?
> Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
It's variance.
What you need is A) a bankroll large enough to withstand variance (which is higher online due to wilder play) and B) the patience to evaluate your decisions rationally, and if they're still good, you still play.
On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 06:52:04 +0000, Alex wrote: > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > and K4o and lose.
> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I had > to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > this without tilting?
Without tilting? Ha! I've been having the same kind of weekend, and I'm on full tilt. The condition, not the poker room.
I just finished a 45-man SNG at Stars and managed to make it past the bubble with the 2nd biggest stack. I immediately get a good hand and go up against the chip leader, who takes me down with nothing. I don't even want to talk about the cards we had. It's a genuine miracle I cashed at all, the way things have been going.
Not a good weekend. My palms are sweating, and I'm itching to make back some of what I've lost. I realize I'm beginning to play badly, but I can't seem to stop.
This is the first time I've experienced this. I have no idea how to handle it.
> Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
If you figure out how to handle it, post a followup.
> On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 06:52:04 +0000, Alex wrote: > > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > > and K4o and lose.
> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I had > > to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > > this without tilting?
> Without tilting? Ha! I've been having the same kind of weekend, and I'm > on full tilt. The condition, not the poker room.
> I just finished a 45-man SNG at Stars and managed to make it past the > bubble with the 2nd biggest stack. I immediately get a good hand and go > up against the chip leader, who takes me down with nothing. I don't even > want to talk about the cards we had. It's a genuine miracle I cashed at > all, the way things have been going.
> Not a good weekend. My palms are sweating, and I'm itching to make back > some of what I've lost. I realize I'm beginning to play badly, but I > can't seem to stop.
> This is the first time I've experienced this. I have no idea how to > handle it.
> > Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
> If you figure out how to handle it, post a followup.
Tilt-Proofing Method:
This is very likely to work if you are willing to try it. It comes from a suggestion from Mike Caro. People often refuse to try because it would not be worth it. That, of course, is your choice.
Step One: Give up the positive feelings, the rush, when you win a pot. Let it go. Just stack your chips or do whatever you do online and go on to the next hand. It is easier to detach from your _good_ results and will make it easier to detach from your bad results.
Second Step: Stop characterizing your opponents in an emotional manner. When you think about your opponents, think about their _specific qualities_ as players and don't characterize them in a general negative manner. It can be difficult to accept being defeated by a donkey but losing a hand because a very loose player called, which is what you expect, when most people wouldn't is part of doing business.
Third Step: Don't anticipate winning a pot. No matter what cards you hold, everyone else has to fold or you have to show down the winning five-card poker hand to win. That means the sense of entitlement when you are looking at a premium hand is not wise. Just play, don't feel.
Fourth Step: Don't get a big kick out of a winning session or a good tournament result. Just do your book-keeping and go off to the next thing in your life.
Fifth Step: Play more cash and fewer tournaments. It is hard not to react emotionally to a beat that takes you out of a tournament and it is hard to avoid exalting when you do well.
Sixth Step: Play lower. If your emotions can't stay out of your game, you may be playing for stakes that are too high.
Take any satisfaction you get out of making correct decisions. Banishing positive emotions from your game will help you banish the negative emotions.
Will in New Haven
--
"Phil's last book was called _Play Poker like the Pros_ his next book should be called _Cry Like a Baby_" Norm Chad
> On Oct 7, 11:07 am, Weevil99 <n...@this.time> wrote: >> On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 06:52:04 +0000, Alex wrote: >> > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
>> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like >> > 76o and K4o and lose.
>> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
>> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I >> > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have >> > been hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
>> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled >> > this without tilting?
>> Without tilting? Ha! I've been having the same kind of weekend, and >> I'm on full tilt. The condition, not the poker room.
>> I just finished a 45-man SNG at Stars and managed to make it past the >> bubble with the 2nd biggest stack. I immediately get a good hand and >> go up against the chip leader, who takes me down with nothing. I don't >> even want to talk about the cards we had. It's a genuine miracle I >> cashed at all, the way things have been going.
>> Not a good weekend. My palms are sweating, and I'm itching to make >> back some of what I've lost. I realize I'm beginning to play badly, >> but I can't seem to stop.
>> This is the first time I've experienced this. I have no idea how to >> handle it.
>> > Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
>> If you figure out how to handle it, post a followup.
> Tilt-Proofing Method:
> This is very likely to work if you are willing to try it. It comes from > a suggestion from Mike Caro. People often refuse to try because it would > not be worth it. That, of course, is your choice.
> Step One: Give up the positive feelings, the rush, when you win a pot. > Let it go. Just stack your chips or do whatever you do online and go on > to the next hand. It is easier to detach from your _good_ results and > will make it easier to detach from your bad results.
> Second Step: Stop characterizing your opponents in an emotional manner. > When you think about your opponents, think about their _specific > qualities_ as players and don't characterize them in a general negative > manner. It can be difficult to accept being defeated by a donkey but > losing a hand because a very loose player called, which is what you > expect, when most people wouldn't is part of doing business.
> Third Step: Don't anticipate winning a pot. No matter what cards you > hold, everyone else has to fold or you have to show down the winning > five-card poker hand to win. That means the sense of entitlement when > you are looking at a premium hand is not wise. Just play, don't feel.
> Fourth Step: Don't get a big kick out of a winning session or a good > tournament result. Just do your book-keeping and go off to the next > thing in your life.
> Fifth Step: Play more cash and fewer tournaments. It is hard not to > react emotionally to a beat that takes you out of a tournament and it is > hard to avoid exalting when you do well.
> Sixth Step: Play lower. If your emotions can't stay out of your game, > you may be playing for stakes that are too high.
> Take any satisfaction you get out of making correct decisions. Banishing > positive emotions from your game will help you banish the negative > emotions.
> Will in New Haven
Thank you very much for taking the time to post this. I'm going to save this to a text file and put it on my Desktop so I can click into it whenever I want. Just reading it helps.
Steps 5 and 6 won't work for me, though. Step 5 recommends more cash games, and I'm not really in it for that. I like tournaments. Golf, pool, darts, chess, poker...I just like to compete in tournaments.
Step 6 is no good for me, either, since I already play at the microscopic level. It isn't losing the small entry fees that bothers me, anyway. It's this extended statistical anomaly I'm going through that prevents the laws of probability from doing their duty and letting me win! :)
Anyway, thanks. I'm going to read it again, slip on my best Ghandi persona, and plunge into yet another $1.75 SnG grinder.
Deep breaths. Calm, peaceful thoughts. The universe does not hate me...the universe does not hate me...ohhhhmmmmmmmmmm
Okay. This is better. I feel like I can play without becoming too emotionally invested in the outcome. Very nice.
> On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 15:29:14 +0000, Will in New Haven wrote:
> > On Oct 7, 11:07 am, Weevil99 <n...@this.time> wrote: > >> On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 06:52:04 +0000, Alex wrote: > >> > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> >> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like > >> > 76o and K4o and lose.
> >> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> >> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > >> > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have > >> > been hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> >> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > >> > this without tilting?
> >> Without tilting? Ha! I've been having the same kind of weekend, and > >> I'm on full tilt. The condition, not the poker room.
> >> I just finished a 45-man SNG at Stars and managed to make it past the > >> bubble with the 2nd biggest stack. I immediately get a good hand and > >> go up against the chip leader, who takes me down with nothing. I don't > >> even want to talk about the cards we had. It's a genuine miracle I > >> cashed at all, the way things have been going.
> >> Not a good weekend. My palms are sweating, and I'm itching to make > >> back some of what I've lost. I realize I'm beginning to play badly, > >> but I can't seem to stop.
> >> This is the first time I've experienced this. I have no idea how to > >> handle it.
> >> > Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
> >> If you figure out how to handle it, post a followup.
> > Tilt-Proofing Method:
> > This is very likely to work if you are willing to try it. It comes from > > a suggestion from Mike Caro. People often refuse to try because it would > > not be worth it. That, of course, is your choice.
> > Step One: Give up the positive feelings, the rush, when you win a pot. > > Let it go. Just stack your chips or do whatever you do online and go on > > to the next hand. It is easier to detach from your _good_ results and > > will make it easier to detach from your bad results.
> > Second Step: Stop characterizing your opponents in an emotional manner. > > When you think about your opponents, think about their _specific > > qualities_ as players and don't characterize them in a general negative > > manner. It can be difficult to accept being defeated by a donkey but > > losing a hand because a very loose player called, which is what you > > expect, when most people wouldn't is part of doing business.
> > Third Step: Don't anticipate winning a pot. No matter what cards you > > hold, everyone else has to fold or you have to show down the winning > > five-card poker hand to win. That means the sense of entitlement when > > you are looking at a premium hand is not wise. Just play, don't feel.
> > Fourth Step: Don't get a big kick out of a winning session or a good > > tournament result. Just do your book-keeping and go off to the next > > thing in your life.
> > Fifth Step: Play more cash and fewer tournaments. It is hard not to > > react emotionally to a beat that takes you out of a tournament and it is > > hard to avoid exalting when you do well.
> > Sixth Step: Play lower. If your emotions can't stay out of your game, > > you may be playing for stakes that are too high.
> > Take any satisfaction you get out of making correct decisions. Banishing > > positive emotions from your game will help you banish the negative > > emotions.
> > Will in New Haven
> Thank you very much for taking the time to post this. I'm going to save > this to a text file and put it on my Desktop so I can click into it > whenever I want. Just reading it helps.
> Steps 5 and 6 won't work for me, though. Step 5 recommends more cash > games, and I'm not really in it for that. I like tournaments. Golf, > pool, darts, chess, poker...I just like to compete in tournaments.
> Step 6 is no good for me, either, since I already play at the microscopic > level. It isn't losing the small entry fees that bothers me, anyway. > It's this extended statistical anomaly I'm going through that prevents > the laws of probability from doing their duty and letting me win! :)
> Anyway, thanks. I'm going to read it again, slip on my best Ghandi > persona, and plunge into yet another $1.75 SnG grinder.
> Deep breaths. Calm, peaceful thoughts. The universe does not hate > me...the universe does not hate me...ohhhhmmmmmmmmmm
> Okay. This is better. I feel like I can play without becoming too > emotionally invested in the outcome. Very nice.
> And now...it's time to make those bastards pay!
If understand the cold, uncaring nature of the universe can help anywhere, it can help at poker. The U doesn't hate you. It just does not give a fuck. Do well, man, play hard.
Will in New Haven
--
"Phil's last book was called _Play Poker like the Pros_ his next book should be called _Cry Like a Baby_" Norm Chad
Play LHE, reduce the impact of some one hiting a long shot against you, minimize swings and enable your superior hand selection and playing skills to consistently take their money.
> The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > and K4o and lose.
> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > this without tilting?
On Oct 7, 1:39 pm, "Irish Mike" <mjos...@ameritech.net> wrote:
> Play LHE, reduce the impact of some one hiting a long shot against you, > minimize swings and enable your superior hand selection and playing skills > to consistently take their money.
As long as LHE attracts enough inferior players this is certainly true. I am not saying that it will but NL may draw off almost all the "customers." If that is the case, continuing to play it would be bad business, like continuing to try to make a living at Draw and Lowball when the other games were made legal in California.
Will in New Haven
--
"I have seen the David, seen the Mona Lisa too And I have heard Doc Watson play Columbus Stockade Blues" Guy Clark - "Dublin Blues"
> > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > > and K4o and lose.
> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > > this without tilting?
> On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 15:29:14 +0000, Will in New Haven wrote:
You are not the only one :) Hope this makes you feel better, lol.
PokerStars Game #12491151259: Tournament #63398589, $8.00+$0.80 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level II (15/30) - 2007/10/07 - 14:17:07 (ET) Table '63398589 5' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 6: mccard (90 in chips) trickrider1: posts small blind 15 Jack1313: posts big blind 30 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to mccard [Ah As] mccard: raises 60 to 90 and is all-in trickrider1: folds Jack1313: calls 60 *** FLOP *** [5h 2h 4s] *** TURN *** [5h 2h 4s] [6d] *** RIVER *** [5h 2h 4s 6d] [2d] *** SHOW DOWN *** Jack1313: shows [2c 3c] (a straight, Deuce to Six) mccard: shows [Ah As] (two pair, Aces and Deuces) Jack1313 collected 195 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 195 | Rake 0 Board [5h 2h 4s 6d 2d] Seat 2: Jack1313 (big blind) showed [2c 3c] and won (195) with a straight, Deuce to Six Seat 6: mccard (button) showed [Ah As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Deuces
True. Fortunately for me, I have access to good limit games. But the question is, how long will the fish continue to play, and lose, at no limit? We know they are going to lose regardless of the betting structure but they difference is that they tend to last longer in limit games.
> On Oct 7, 1:39 pm, "Irish Mike" <mjos...@ameritech.net> wrote: >> Play LHE, reduce the impact of some one hiting a long shot against you, >> minimize swings and enable your superior hand selection and playing >> skills >> to consistently take their money.
> As long as LHE attracts enough inferior players this is certainly > true. I am not saying that it will but NL may draw off almost all the > "customers." If that is the case, continuing to play it would be bad > business, like continuing to try to make a living at Draw and Lowball > when the other games were made legal in California.
> Will in New Haven
> --
> "I have seen the David, seen the Mona Lisa too > And I have heard Doc Watson play Columbus Stockade Blues" > Guy Clark - "Dublin Blues"
>> > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
>> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o >> > and K4o and lose.
>> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
>> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I >> > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been >> > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
>> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled >> > this without tilting?
>> > Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
Weevil99 wrote: > On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 06:52:04 +0000, Alex wrote:
>> The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
>> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o >> and K4o and lose.
>> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
>> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I had >> to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been >> hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
>> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled >> this without tilting?
> Without tilting? Ha! I've been having the same kind of weekend, and I'm > on full tilt. The condition, not the poker room.
> I just finished a 45-man SNG at Stars and managed to make it past the > bubble with the 2nd biggest stack. I immediately get a good hand and go > up against the chip leader,
I stopped reading here.
-- Kenneth Sloan KennethRSl...@gmail.com Computer and Information Sciences +1-205-932-2213 University of Alabama at Birmingham FAX +1-205-934-5473 Birmingham, AL 35294-1170 http://www.cis.uab.edu/sloan/
> The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > and K4o and lose.
> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > this without tilting?
> Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.
Quit the site immediately.
Seriously, unless you are talking about early hands in a tourney where you can call a 4X+ raise with anything.
On Oct 7, 6:56 pm, "Irish Mike" <mjos...@ameritech.net> wrote:
> True. Fortunately for me, I have access to good limit games. But the > question is, how long will the fish continue to play, and lose, at no limit? > We know they are going to lose regardless of the betting structure but they > difference is that they tend to last longer in limit games.
And if NL dries up, they would be gone and the good players would have their money. And this is bad because? Obviously, a failure to adopt to whatever the next good game would be would be bad but we haven't reached that point yet. On the other hand, we have not reached a point where you can't do well at limit, so I am not saying you shoud switch. Just be aware of where the action is.
> > On Oct 7, 1:39 pm, "Irish Mike" <mjos...@ameritech.net> wrote: > >> Play LHE, reduce the impact of some one hiting a long shot against you, > >> minimize swings and enable your superior hand selection and playing > >> skills > >> to consistently take their money.
> > As long as LHE attracts enough inferior players this is certainly > > true. I am not saying that it will but NL may draw off almost all the > > "customers." If that is the case, continuing to play it would be bad > > business, like continuing to try to make a living at Draw and Lowball > > when the other games were made legal in California.
> > Will in New Haven
> > --
> > "I have seen the David, seen the Mona Lisa too > > And I have heard Doc Watson play Columbus Stockade Blues" > > Guy Clark - "Dublin Blues"
> >> > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
> >> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o > >> > and K4o and lose.
> >> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
> >> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I > >> > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been > >> > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
> >> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled > >> > this without tilting?
> >> > Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.- Hide quoted text -
The choice between LHE and NLH isn't an "either, or" choice. I play both NL and LHE now but, given a choice, I'll play limit cash games- especially if the game is short handed. In tournaments, I prefer NL. For me, LHE offers the best combination +EV with small swings and minimal risk. Also, I think short handed LHE offers the most action. You can't deny the popularity of NL, but at low stakes ($1/$2) it can be a little slow and boring. I mean how much time do you want to spend watching two backwards-baseball-cap, sun goggle wearing guys doing their best TV stare down? Or, asking each other stupid questions to get a "tell", when they wouldn't know a tell if they tripped over one. Also, a number of poker rooms are finally wising up, realizing how slow some of these NL games play, and switching to time charge instead of rake. As a more selective player, I prefer raked games. Even so, I'm starting to play more NL.
> On Oct 7, 6:56 pm, "Irish Mike" <mjos...@ameritech.net> wrote: >> True. Fortunately for me, I have access to good limit games. But the >> question is, how long will the fish continue to play, and lose, at no >> limit? >> We know they are going to lose regardless of the betting structure but >> they >> difference is that they tend to last longer in limit games.
> And if NL dries up, they would be gone and the good players would have > their money. And this is bad because? Obviously, a failure to adopt to > whatever the next good game would be would be bad but we haven't > reached that point yet. On the other hand, we have not reached a point > where you can't do well at limit, so I am not saying you shoud switch. > Just be aware of where the action is.
>> > On Oct 7, 1:39 pm, "Irish Mike" <mjos...@ameritech.net> wrote: >> >> Play LHE, reduce the impact of some one hiting a long shot against >> >> you, >> >> minimize swings and enable your superior hand selection and playing >> >> skills >> >> to consistently take their money.
>> > As long as LHE attracts enough inferior players this is certainly >> > true. I am not saying that it will but NL may draw off almost all the >> > "customers." If that is the case, continuing to play it would be bad >> > business, like continuing to try to make a living at Draw and Lowball >> > when the other games were made legal in California.
>> > Will in New Haven
>> > --
>> > "I have seen the David, seen the Mona Lisa too >> > And I have heard Doc Watson play Columbus Stockade Blues" >> > Guy Clark - "Dublin Blues"
>> >> Irish Mike
>> >> "Alex" <alexk...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>> >> > The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
>> >> > I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like >> >> > 76o >> >> > and K4o and lose.
>> >> > I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
>> >> > I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I >> >> > had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have >> >> > been >> >> > hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
>> >> > Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled >> >> > this without tilting?
>> >> > Maybe I need a few weeks away from the table.- Hide quoted text -
On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 20:41:16 -0500, Kenneth Sloan wrote: > Weevil99 wrote: >> On Sun, 07 Oct 2007 06:52:04 +0000, Alex wrote:
>>> The last three days, I've had yet another run of Full Tilt luck.
>>> I raise pre-flop (pot-sized or larger), get called by garbage like 76o >>> and K4o and lose.
>>> I play premium hands and get called (and beaten) by garbage.
>>> I've completed three draws in the last three days (and one of them I >>> had to give up when a 4th diamond hit the board), but others have been >>> hitting 2, 3, and 4-outers on me like clockwork.
>>> Assuming others have had the same kind of week, how have you handled >>> this without tilting?
>> Without tilting? Ha! I've been having the same kind of weekend, and >> I'm on full tilt. The condition, not the poker room.
>> I just finished a 45-man SNG at Stars and managed to make it past the >> bubble with the 2nd biggest stack. I immediately get a good hand and >> go up against the chip leader,
> I stopped reading here.
Yeah, I know. My play went from mediocre to bad over the weekend. I'm still a novice at poker, but that's really no excuse. I let the bad beats get to me and started doing things I normally don't do. My usual game is fairly tight. I've folded AQ on the button after a raise and re- raise. I don't think I've ever folded AA or KK pre-flop, but I know I've folded QQ in late position with the table going crazy ahead of me.
Anyway, my play is correctable. What I've been whining about all weekend is this extended bad beat streak I've been having. I'm worried that it will have too big an effect on whatever intuition I'm developing for the game due to my lack of experience. Already I've noticed that when I get AK, I have little confidence that it will hold up against a single opponent, let alone multiple callers. And I'm reluctant to play pairs at all below KK, because I've been beaten so many times by flopped straights, flopped two pairs, flopped sets from somebody with a lower pair, etc. Actually, I'm reluctant to get in ANY pots because my hands have rarely held up this weekend.
This is not how to play poker, and it's not how I was playing before. If I had lots of experience, I imagine I would be able to overlook the streak more easily, but I've only been playing since the beginning of August or so, and with real money only since Sept 1st, so this weekend was a pretty good sized fraction of my total experience.
But that's not why I'm replying, although it feels kind of good to sort out my thoughts on "paper." I'm replying because I recognize your name from the early days of rgc, even before it was split into 5 sub-groups. I remember you as someone whose expertise in probability and statistics I respect very much.
I'd like to do some simple statistical analysis on my hand histories, but doing it by hand is way too tedious. I actually did it by hand to compare the frequency of AA to that of 72o (which turned out to match pretty well with statistical prediction), but not only did that take more time than it was worth, but I'd really like to get a little more sophisticated than that. I'd like to do things like find good streaks and bad streaks where the outcome of, say, one or two days worth of hands are significantly better or worse than probability would predict (maybe two or more standard deviations away from the expected value). I'd also be interested in learning, say, my success rate from different positions at the table, or different starting hands, etc. That sort of thing.
I've been Googling around to see what kind of software might be out there for this sort of thing, but it's kind of hard to tell much about any of it just by reading their web pages. What I'd like to know is what *you* use, if anything. As soon as I saw your name, I figured you'd have a pretty thorough knowledge of any poker analysis software out there, so I'd like to know if there's anything you recommend.
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